June 2025 Insights
AW constantly monitors the investment markets and aims to keep our valued clients regularly informed and updated. We aim to help investors cut through all the media noise and hype and understand what is really driving investment markets and portfolio returns.
In this edition, we cover:
Tariff update
New Adviser joins Aspirations Wealth
When in doubt, zoom out
Tariff Update
Shares have continued to recover over the past 5 weeks from the ‘Liberation Day’ sell off in early April, helped by the US-China agreement in Geneva to lower tariffs for 90-days as well as the announcement of a trade deal between the US and UK.
Progress on trade deals with other major trade partners such as the EU, Japan, India and South Korea have been slow as the clock ticks down towards the 9th of July deadline. The general view is that the average US tariff rate will likely settle somewhere around 13%, which is still a significant increase but well below the levels announced on 2nd April. At these levels, markets and economists expect US growth will slow materially, and consumer inflation will rise, but a job-shedding recession should likely be avoided. The revenues collected from tariffs should also partly offset the tax cuts in Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill (‘OB3’).
We are most likely past ‘peak’ tariff uncertainty and financial markets are becoming less sensitive to trade, tariff and policy news, which means a share market decline of more than 20% (bear market) should be avoided unless trade tensions re-escalate after the 90-day delays expire.
Another potential source of financial market stress would emerge if US longer-term bond yields rise sharply due to concerns about the trajectory of US government debt, which results in a buyer strike and sharp repricing of other assets, as seen in 2022.
New Adviser Joins Aspirations Wealth
Don Changson is leaving our firm to pursue other professional opportunities. While we are naturally sad to see him go, we are grateful for his contributions to our team. We are very excited to introduce Mark Harding who joins the team as a Private Wealth Adviser. Mark has over 20 years’ experience providing financial advice, holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance & Economics), a Master of Commerce (Financial Planning) and is a Certified Financial Planner. Mark starts at Aspirations Wealth on the 23rd of June - welcome Mark.
When in Doubt, Zoom Out
If you go back to 2018, the first Trump administration’s tariffs on China sparked a trade war that panicked markets and dominated the news, much like today. What’s more, two US government shutdowns and challenging Brexit negotiations stoked market pessimism. Fears that a trade war between the two largest economies would lead to a global slowdown sent the USA S&P 500 Index down 4.4% in 2018, falling as much as 19.4% from 20 September to 24 December that year. But the index recovered sharply in 2019, up 31.1%, as trade deals were announced and consumer spending steadied. See chart below.
Market declines can be painful to endure in the short term however good investors are wise and stay the course. To weather market volatility, we seek diversification across stocks and bonds. Though it may feel like this time is different, markets have shown resilience throughout history when confronted by wars, pandemics and other crises.
Any advice contained in this insight/update is general advice only and does not take into consideration the reader’s personal circumstances. To avoid making a decision not appropriate to you, the content should not be relied upon or act as a substitute for receiving financial advice suitable to your circumstances. When considering a financial product please consider the Product Disclosure Statement. Aspirations Wealth Group is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Aspirations Private Wealth Pty Limited. ABN 57 622 182 076 – AFSL 503889.